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Rally then Retreat Amid Tariffs Fear, Inflation Worries

This week, U.S. equity markets faced significant volatility, culminating in notable losses across major indices. 

The S&P 500, which closed above its 200-day moving average early in the week, declined by 1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 2.6%.

A convergence of rising inflation, declining consumer confidence, and trade policy uncertainties amplified market volatility.

The Consumer Confidence Index showed a fourth consecutive decline, and the Expectations Index fell to its lowest level (65.2) in 12 years, with worries about future employment prospects and inflation pacing that downturn. Inflation data this week corroborated the worries after February's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation read, rose by 0.4%, bringing the annual rate to 2.8%.

Also, the final March University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was marked down to 57.0 from the preliminary reading of 57.9. There was a large month-over-month drop in the Expectations Index, with consumers across all demographics and political affiliations expressing concerns about personal finances, business conditions, unemployment, and inflation.

Ongoing concerns about US trade policy also played a big role this week. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported passenger vehicles starting April 3. He also said reciprocal tariffs will go on for all countries, but that the U.S. will be very lenient. 

Tech stocks led the retreat, but many names participated in this week's slide. The equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 1.2%. 

Four S&P 500 sectors registered gains while the remaining seven sectors logged declines ranging from 0.2% (financials) to 3.7% (technology). The risk-off bias this week led the consumer staples sector to log a 1.7% gain.

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Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.

Data and rates used were indicative of market conditions as of the date shown and compiled by Briefing.com. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to purchase or sell a security. S&P 500 Index is a market index generally considered representative of the stock market as a whole. The index focuses on the large-cap segment of the U.S. equities market. Each company’s security affects the index in proportion to its market value. NASDAQ Composite Index is a market value-weighted index that measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock market. Dow Jones Industrial Average is a widely used indicator of the overall condition of the stock market, a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue chip stocks, primarily industrials, but also includes financial, leisure and other service-oriented firms. Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the smallest 2,000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index of the 3,000 largest U.S. companies in terms of market capitalization. MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets.

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6974283.28 (Exp. 06/25)

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