PAS Weekly Commentary

Mixed Week Over New Year's Holiday

The stock market had a mixed week, which included the final sessions in 2024 and final sessions of the Santa Claus Rally period.

The major indices lost steam at the end of the year after registering huge gains, but some rebound action kicked in at the end of the week. 

Small stocks outperformed their larger peers this week, leading the Russell 2000 to settle 1.1% higher. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each declined 0.5% for the week. The S&P surged 23.3% in 2024 and the Nasdaq Composite closed 28.6% higher for the year. 

This week's price action left the S&P 500 lower over the Santa Claus Rally period, which has been good for an average gain of 1.3% for the S&P 500 since 1950, according to The Stock Traders Almanac. It has been observed that significant downturns have occurred (but not always) in years when Santa didn't show. To that end, bear in mind that Santa didn't show last year and the S&P 500 went on to log a 23.3% price gain for 2024.

The S&P 500 also closed below its 50-day moving average, which pivoted from support to resistance on Monday. 

Only three S&P 500 sectors closed higher this week -- energy (+3.2%), real estate (+0.6%), and health care (+0.01%) -- while the materials (-2.1%), consumer discretionary (-1.5%), and consumer staples (-1.4%) sectors logged the largest declines. 

Volume was relatively light due to holiday-related closures this week. Several foreign markets were closed on Tuesday (or closed early) and remained closed Wednesday for the New Year's holiday. The U.S. markets were open for a full day on Tuesday and closed on Wednesday.

  • Russell 2000: +1.1% for the week / +1.7% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -0.5% for the week / +1.6% YTD
  • S&P 500: -0.5% for the week / +1.0% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +0.4% for the week / +1.0% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.6% for the week / +0.4% YTD

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Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.

Data and rates used were indicative of market conditions as of the date shown and compiled by Briefing.com. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to purchase or sell a security. S&P 500 Index is a market index generally considered representative of the stock market as a whole. The index focuses on the large-cap segment of the U.S. equities market. Each company’s security affects the index in proportion to its market value. NASDAQ Composite Index is a market value-weighted index that measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock market. Dow Jones Industrial Average is a widely used indicator of the overall condition of the stock market, a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue chip stocks, primarily industrials, but also includes financial, leisure and other service-oriented firms. Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the smallest 2,000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index of the 3,000 largest U.S. companies in terms of market capitalization. MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets.

Park Avenue Securities LLC (PAS) is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Guardian Life Insurance Company of America (Guardian). PAS is a registered broker/dealer offering competitive investment products, as well as a registered investment advisor offering financial planning and investment advisory services. PAS is a member of FINRA and SIPC.

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7497633.1 (Exp. 04/25)

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